Possible scenario
Strikes Broaden
20% Chance
Civil-service anger spreads from demonstrations into coordinated work stoppages, with education, health and local-government services joining. The direct economic hit is limited, but disruption increases the political cost of keeping the wage index frozen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Finance -0.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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