Possible scenario
Freeze Mostly Holds
38% Chance
The government absorbs the demonstrations and keeps the civil-service cost-of-living index freeze in place, arguing that the post-downgrade deficit path leaves little room for recurring wage costs. Unions continue symbolic pressure, but turnout does not force a fiscal retreat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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