Negotiated Bill Rewrite

The most likely outcome is that lawmakers keep the idea of federal AI safety oversight but rewrite the bill after criticism that 10^25 FLOPs is stale and captures too many small labs. Anthropic preserves some policy influence, but the final text becomes less aggressive and more tied to frontier-model scale.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.