Possible scenario
Razor-Thin Deal Senate
22% Chance
The Senate margin is so narrow that moderates in both parties control the confirmation calendar. Neither Schumer nor Trump gets a clean win, producing case-by-case bargaining over nominees tied to courts, agencies, and U.S. attorney posts.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.