Possible scenario
GOP Retains Senate
34% Chance
Republicans narrowly keep Senate control in the 2026 midterms, limiting Schumer's ability to carry out a broad blockade. John Thune still has to manage Republican dissent from senators such as Marsha Blackburn, but the confirmation process remains mostly in GOP hands.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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