Possible scenario
Democratic Senate Blockade
31% Chance
Democrats win a narrow Senate majority and Schumer follows through on his warning to confirm very few Trump nominees. The Senate confirms only low-profile or consensus officials while using committee control to stall ideologically aggressive picks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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