Possible scenario
Ukraine Retaliates Quickly
25% Chance
Ukraine responds to the bomber operation with long-range drones against Russian air bases, fuel depots or bomber logistics sites. This fits the recent pattern of Ukrainian attacks on Russian bomber infrastructure and could reduce the tempo of follow-on strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.