Possible scenario
Escalatory Salvo
20% Chance
The bomber flights mark the start of a larger-than-expected strike package against Ukraine's winter energy system. The market impact remains far below a systemic crisis but produces a clearer risk-off move, especially if NATO airspace is involved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.