Possible scenario
Contained Energy Strike
45% Chance
Russia conducts a major bomber-launched missile and drone strike focused on Ukrainian power infrastructure, but the effects remain within the pattern of the ongoing winter energy campaign. Ukrainian air defenses limit the damage enough to avoid a broader NATO or energy-market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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