Possible scenario
Yield Spike Extends
40% Chance
Investors continue demanding a higher term premium as the 30-year Treasury yield trades near multi-decade highs. The equity selloff remains orderly but broad, led by rate-sensitive sectors and long-duration growth shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -3.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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