Possible scenario
Policy Reassurance Stabilizes
25% Chance
Officials avoid emergency action but use communication to calm fears about market functioning and debt supply. Treasury yields retreat modestly from the highs, allowing equities to recover part of the initial selloff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +2.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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