Possible scenario
EU Shield Advances
35% Chance
The Netherlands wins enough support in Brussels for a limited EU legal shield covering the International Criminal Court and entities providing it services. The European Commission frames the step as a defense of EU sovereignty and international law rather than a broad retaliation against Washington.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.