Possible scenario
EU Process Stalls
30% Chance
The Dutch proposal runs into objections from member states wary of escalating a dispute with the Trump administration. Brussels issues supportive language for the ICC, but binding measures are delayed while diplomats search for a lower-risk workaround.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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