Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Senate
36% Chance
The Co/Efficient poll proves directionally useful, and Republicans keep a thin majority despite some Democratic gains. Democrats may flip one or two Biden-state Republican seats, but losses or shortfalls in Georgia, Michigan, or North Carolina leave the GOP in control.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.5%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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