Possible scenario
Republicans Gain Cushion
11% Chance
A broader Republican overperformance turns the Co/Efficient result into an early warning sign rather than an outlier. The GOP not only holds its vulnerable seats but also defeats at least one Democratic incumbent beyond Georgia, creating a more durable Senate majority.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Finance +0.8%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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