Possible scenario
Democrats Win Narrowly
43% Chance
The broader polling trend and VoteHub's 62% Democratic Senate odds remain more informative than a single Co/Efficient result. Democrats defend Jon Ossoff in Georgia and the open Michigan seat created by Gary Peters's retirement while flipping enough Republican-held seats to take a very small majority.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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