Pause Becomes Baseline

The most likely outcome is that Bowman’s remarks reinforce a near-term Fed pause, with officials waiting for more inflation and labor data before changing rates. The September projection for 2026 hikes remains relevant, but the soft core PCE print reduces pressure for action in the final meetings of 2026.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.