Possible scenario
Hawkish Path Returns
20% Chance
A hotter inflation sequence could quickly make Bowman’s current patience look temporary. The September projection for more 2026 hikes would regain market attention, pushing yields higher and weighing on rate-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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