Possible scenario
Stale Data Absorbed
20% Chance
Investors decide the revision says more about last year's measurement error than the economy's current trajectory. The market response depends on whether 2026 private payroll, claims, and spending data continue to show resilience.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.