Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Dominates
40% Chance
Markets treat the 90% cut to 2025 job growth as evidence that monetary policy was tighter than the real economy could bear. The immediate focus shifts to the Federal Reserve's next two meetings and whether officials validate a faster easing path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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