Possible scenario
Selloff Stays Contained
30% Chance
Investors continue cutting exposure to expensive AI winners, but the pressure remains concentrated in equities rather than funding markets. G7 and G20 statements prevent a broader panic, though the IMF's warning keeps risk appetite fragile.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Business Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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