Possible scenario
Reassurance Calms Markets
45% Chance
G7 and G20 officials' public dismissal of systemic-risk concerns helps investors treat the AI selloff as a valuation correction rather than a financial-stability event. The IMF's warning remains relevant, but markets take comfort that regulators are not seeing bank, funding, or collateral stress.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.3%
- Business Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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