Possible scenario
Complacency Gets Tested
15% Chance
Markets begin to doubt the official no-instability message as selling pressure exposes leverage in AI-linked trades. The episode still falls short of a systemic crisis, but volatility, credit spreads, and bank-risk pricing worsen over the next session.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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