Possible scenario
Limited Military Response
25% Chance
Washington, London, and New Delhi coordinate a limited security response after another tanker with Indian sailors is hit. The objective is deterrence rather than regime-level escalation, but Iran could retaliate against ships or regional bases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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