Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
20% Chance
India presses Iran diplomatically while Oman, Qatar, and the UAE push for a temporary maritime pause. Tehran may calculate that killing or injuring Indian sailors risks alienating a major oil buyer and non-Western partner.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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