Possible scenario
Contained Shipping Disruption
40% Chance
Iran-linked attacks continue around the Strait of Hormuz, but the waterway remains technically open. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, Gulf states, and India expand naval escorts, while insurers lift war-risk premiums and some owners delay sailings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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