Possible scenario
Long-Range Escalation
27% Chance
The US warning proves prescient as Tigray forces use captured airfields or drone systems to reach targets well beyond the frontline. Ethiopia and Eritrea respond with intensified air operations, raising the risk of a broader interstate phase of the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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