Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
22% Chance
US, African Union, and regional mediation efforts slow the momentum toward wider war. Both sides retain military positions, but a temporary pause in long-range attacks lowers near-term escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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