Possible scenario
Border War Contained
38% Chance
Eritrea and Tigray forces continue fighting around northern Tigray, but the conflict remains geographically concentrated near the border. Addis Ababa supports Eritrean pressure while avoiding a full nationwide mobilization, and long-range strikes remain sporadic or ineffective.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.