Possible scenario
Limited Gaza Escalation
32% Chance
Israel responds to the failed operation by intensifying strikes on Hamas command networks in Gaza, while avoiding a full reoccupation or broad ground campaign. The cease-fire is weakened but not irretrievably broken as mediators try to restore deconfliction channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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