Possible scenario
Hamas Retaliation
18% Chance
Hamas chooses to demonstrate that the failed assassination attempt carries a cost, either through rocket fire, border attacks or freezing cease-fire implementation. The response remains centered on Gaza but creates a higher probability of renewed Israeli military action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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