Possible scenario
Cease-Fire Contained
40% Chance
Israel and Hamas avoid a formal rupture of the October 2025 cease-fire despite the failed attempt on Ali al-Amoudi. Mediators in Doha and Cairo press both sides to limit retaliation, while Hamas uses al-Amoudi's survival for internal legitimacy rather than immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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