Possible scenario
Regime Stability Restored
40% Chance
Mojtaba Khamenei's public appearance is accepted as genuine by Iranian elites and foreign intelligence services. The rally helps consolidate his authority after months of rumors, reducing near-term succession uncertainty even as the Iran war continues.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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