Possible scenario
Hardline Escalation Signal
20% Chance
Mojtaba uses the rally to project survival and call for retaliation, strengthening the IRGC's hardline camp. This raises near-term risk of missile, drone, or proxy attacks, particularly if Gulf shipping or U.S.-aligned assets are threatened.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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