Possible scenario
Forced Diplomacy Returns
20% Chance
Military and energy-market risks push Gulf governments, European states, and parts of the US security establishment to press for a pause. Trump does not revive the old nuclear deal, but he accepts a narrower arrangement if it can be framed as military coercion succeeding.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Consumer Services +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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