Possible scenario
Expanded US Campaign
40% Chance
Trump's rejection of a deal is followed by a broader US-Israel air and missile campaign against Iranian nuclear, missile, and IRGC command targets. Washington avoids a ground invasion but tries to force Tehran's military capacity below the threshold for sustained retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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