Possible scenario
Managed Transit Compliance
45% Chance
Most owners accept Iran's approved routing and apology requirements to regain predictable passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran keeps coercive leverage but avoids a full kinetic confrontation because oil-revenue disruption and foreign naval escalation would be costly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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