Possible scenario
GOP Keeps Confirmation Path
24% Chance
Republicans retain enough Senate control after the 2026 elections to make a conservative replacement feasible. In that environment, Alito has a stronger incentive to retire while a Republican White House and Senate can confirm a successor.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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