Possible scenario
Democratic Senate Standoff
18% Chance
Democrats win the Senate and Alito's seat becomes a high-stakes confirmation flashpoint if a vacancy occurs. The Garland precedent makes an extended blockade plausible if a Republican president nominates a strongly conservative successor.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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