Possible scenario
Alito Delays Retirement
46% Chance
Justice Samuel Alito remains on the Court rather than risk a Democratic Senate blocking or reshaping the choice of his successor. This is the most likely outcome because his public comments already signal caution after the Garland and Barrett precedents hardened confirmation incentives.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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