Possible scenario
Saudi Gains Contain Fighting
38% Chance
The Saudi-led coalition and allied Yemeni forces translate the large air campaign into limited but real gains around Taiz and Al-Turbah. Houthi missile fire continues, but Saudi air defenses prevent a major new hit on oil infrastructure, keeping the conflict intense but geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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