Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Broadens
25% Chance
The Houthis answer the three-front offensive with a larger cross-border missile and drone campaign. Even if most projectiles are intercepted, renewed threats to Saudi oil infrastructure and Red Sea traffic create a clear short-term risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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