Possible scenario
Attritional Frontline Stalemate
27% Chance
The offensive inflicts damage but does not materially change the military balance. Fighting settles into artillery exchanges, drone attacks, and sporadic missile launches, leaving Saudi energy assets under a persistent but not yet severe threat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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