Possible scenario
Health Concern Emerges
15% Chance
A less likely but market-relevant path is that the early exit reflects a temporary health issue. Because Trump is the sitting president and is central to the GOP midterm push, even a limited medical explanation would draw immediate attention to continuity and Vice President JD Vance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.