Possible scenario
Security Deal Emerges
18% Chance
The seizure of the strait gives the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia leverage to negotiate a maritime-security arrangement. Houthis accept limits on attacks in exchange for port access, prisoner releases, or revenue guarantees.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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