Possible scenario
Route Reopens Securely
45% Chance
The internationally recognized Yemeni government, backed by Saudi and UAE logistics and Western naval surveillance, consolidates control around Bab al-Mandeb. Commercial insurers lower war-risk surcharges and tankers gradually return to the Red Sea-Suez route.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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