Possible scenario
Houthi Counterattack
25% Chance
Houthi forces fail to retake the strait immediately but retain enough missile and drone capacity to threaten vessels from inland launch sites. Markets reverse part of the initial relief rally as shipowners delay full Red Sea normalization.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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