Possible scenario
Tehran Politics Tighten
19% Chance
Iranian lawmakers use the New York meeting to pressure Abbas Araghchi over any appearance of flexibility toward the United States or Turkey. Tehran keeps diplomatic contacts alive but narrows the foreign minister's room for compromise.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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