Possible scenario
Managed Bilateral Pragmatism
42% Chance
Turkey and Iran preserve working ties despite disagreement over Azerbaijan, Syria, Gaza and US-Iran diplomacy. Hakan Fidan and Abbas Araghchi prioritize crisis-management channels over public breakthroughs, limiting immediate market impact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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