Possible scenario
Limited Mediation Progress
24% Chance
Ankara leverages its relations with both Tehran and Baku to reduce the risk of another cross-border incident. The process remains fragile, but even limited mediation lowers near-term geopolitical risk around the South Caucasus and energy corridors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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